栏目简介：【翻页查看英文原文】PuttingasidetheongoingwarofwordsbetweenBeijingandTokyosurroundingJapanesePrimeMinisterSanaeTakaichisstatementsonTaiwanlastmonth,thereisasimplequestionthatneedsanswering.CanJapansSelf-DefenceForcesreallyaffordtofightthePeoplesLiberationArmy(PLA)withoutAmericanmilitarysupport?TakaichisanswerappearstobethatJapansmilitarymustdoso.ThelegislationapprovedbyJapansDietinSeptember2015allowedthecountrytoexerciseitsrightofcollectiveself-defence–albeitonlytoalimiteddegree–evenifJapanisnotdirectlyattacked.Therearethreeconditionsonactingonthisright:ifanattackagainstaforeigncountrywithwhichJapanhascloserelationsthreatensJapanssurvival;ifthereisnootherappropriatemeanstorepeltheattackandensureJapanssurvivalandprotectitspeople;andthattheuseofforcemustbelimitedtotheminimumextentnecessary.Taiwanisnotaforeigncountry,ofcourse.EvenifaconflictdidbreakoutacrosstheTaiwanStraitandafewstraybombsaccidentallyfellintothewatersoffYonaguni,Japanswesternmostinhabitedisland,howcouldthatbeinterpretedasathreattoJapanssurvival?ThesameyearthatJapanpasseditsself-defencelegislation,afewartilleryshellsfromMyanmargovernmentforceslandedinavillageinYunnanprovince,injuringfivevillagers.TheissuewasresolvedquietlybecausetheChinesegovernmentsawitasanaccident.TheonlyterritorialdisputebetweenBeijingandTokyoisovertheDiaoyuIslands,whichJapancallstheSenkakus.Althoughbothhavecoastguardshipssailinginthewatersofftheislands,thetwomilitarieshavemaintainedakindoftacitagreementofnotsendingtheirnavalvesselsintothedisputedwaters.IftheprospectofChinaandJapancomingtoblowsoverdisputedterritoryissounlikely,itwouldberidiculousforthemtostartfightingoverTaiwan.Eveniftheydid,thereisnowayJapancouldwininanyscenario.Plus,ifBeijingsawTokyosmilitaryinvolvementoverTaiwanasagiven,whywouldntthePLAlaunchapre-emptivestrikeonJapaneseforces?TakaichiisinvitingtheveryconflictshesaysshewantstopreventbyraisingthepossibilityofJapaneseintervention.TherearethreelayersofstrategicambiguityaroundtheTaiwanissue,stemmingfromChina,theUnitedStatesandWashingtonsAsianallies.Beijingseespeacefulreunificationasthebestoutcomeandbelievestimeisonitsside.ThiscanbeseeninBeijingstillmentioningpeaceacrossthestraitdespitetheDemocraticProgressivePartyholdingtheTaiwanpresidencyfortwoconsecutiveadministrations.USstrategicambiguitiesaretwofold.Thefirstisitsone-Chinapolicy,whichisslipperyenoughthatitseemsitcantakeanyshapeatanytime.TheotherisitscontinuedrefusaltospecifywhetheritwouldassistTaiwanmilitarilyintheeventofanattackbythePLA.ThisapproachismeanttodeterTaiwanfromdeclaringindependence,whilekeepingopenthepossibilityofUSmilitaryinterventionismeanttodissuadeBeijingfromlaunchinganattackandreunifyingthroughforce.ThentherearetheUSalliesinAsia.Japanisobligedtoprovidelogisticalsupportandbasesintheeventofawar.However,whenPentagonofficialspressedJapanandAustraliainJulytoclarifywhatroletheywouldplayifChinaandtheUSwenttowaroverTaiwan,neithertargetwouldcommittoahypotheticalmilitaryconflictinadvanceandsaidthatanydecisionwouldhavetobemadebythegovernmentoftheday.ThisrefusaltostakeoutaclearpositionisunderstandableasthereislittlereasonforalliestocommitthemselveswhentheUSitselfmaintainsitsstrategicambiguity.Theselayersofstrategicambiguityfrommultiplepartiescreateachainreaction.AslongasBeijingbelievespeacefulreunificationisstillpossible,itisunlikelytoresorttomilitaryforceagainstTaiwan.Shortofthat,thereisnoneedfortheUStogiveupitsstrategicambiguity.AndaslongastheUSmaintainsthatstrategicambiguity,thereislittlepointinJapanraisingTaiwanasanissue.DuringaninterviewwithJapanesetelevisioninFebruary2022,then-JapaneseprimeministerShinzoAbecalledontheUStodropitsstrategicambiguityregardingthedefenceofTaiwan.Abereiteratedhisoft-repeatednotionthataTaiwancontingencyisaJapancontingencyandthattheestablishmentofmainlandChineseairandseasuperiorityaroundTaiwanwouldaffectJapansterritorialwaters.Thisisthetailwaggingthedog.Infact,astheimportanceofTaiwanrecedesunderamoreisolationistUSpresidency,Washingtonmightmoveintheoppositedirectiontowardsgreaterstrategicclarity.USPresidentDonaldTrumpsdesiretoreachagrandbargainwithChinaontradeissuesisastrongincentivenottosupportantagonisingthemainlandandbeingdraggedintoawaroverTaiwan.AccordingtoareportinTheWallStreetJournallastweek,TrumptoldTakaichiduringaphonecalltotemperhertoneonTaiwan.ThatcalltookplacehoursafterTrumpspoketoPresidentXiJinping.Unsurprisingly,Japanesegovernmentofficialsdeniedtheclaimsmadeinthereport.TakaichisstatementonTaiwanwasapoliticalact,aimedatshoringupherstandingwithadomesticaudience.Itwillnotgodowninhistoryasausefullegacy.Inacountrywhereprimeministersoftenlastlessthanayearinoffice,herremarksaremerelyripplesthatwillsoondisappear.点击进入专题：高市早苗涉台错误言论遭批在近日强烈冬季风暴后，联合国迅速提供了帐篷、毛毯、衣物等紧急物资。